Although new states continue to implement medical and adult-use cannabis programs, sales have been declining in the early adopters of recreational marijuana. After a tumultuous 2024 — and the unpredictability of a new presidential administration — will the industry find more stability in the upcoming year?
Marijuana Venture spoke with several entrepreneurs and operators in the cannabis space to get their predictions for 2025. Part 1 of this four-part series will cover market trends.
Part 1: Market trends
Part 2: Policy
Part 3: Hemp
Part 4: Products
Louis Samuel
CEO
I think that in 2025 the cannabis industry is going to have a bit of a “come to Treesus” moment and realize two things: driving all the business to large mega-farms with mass production and no love for their product is bad, and that small farmers need to get their scale and quality dialed in to survive, let alone thrive in the changing landscape.
This could just be wishful thinking, but I think we start to see some movement toward smokers wanting to know the growing method of their flower (like they do with food), and what type of pesticides are used to grow it. What kind of synthetic fertilizers are used to grow it. I dream of a world where if the answer is that natural pest control methods are used, such as sulfur and ladybugs, and that compost teas are used to feed plants, that it means something to the consumer, and they have the opportunity to choose that type of flower on dispensary shelves.
Brendan McKee
Co-founder, chief financial officer and chief operating officer
In mature markets, it is critical to build and retain customer loyalty. To the extent that it is possible (and compliant), operators should be leveraging loyalty platforms and tools to build and maintain their customer base in 2025. There should be more flexibility with cannabis marketing initiatives heading into the new year in states that are loosening advertising limitations.
Josh Schmidt
Vice president of business development
In 2025, the cannabis industry will see unprecedented growth and innovation. Successful brands will continue to expand across multiple states, solidifying their presence in new markets. The THCA and hemp market will experience explosive growth as consumer demand for alternative cannabinoids surges. Additionally, international trade will flourish, with countries like Thailand, Macedonia, Czechia and others leading the way in exporting medical cannabis and hemp/delta-8 products to meet global demand. This evolution marks a pivotal shift toward a more interconnected, accessible and dynamic cannabis landscape.
Michael Sassano
CEO
2025 is already set and is currently experiencing a global medical cannabis explosion. Every country in the EU is either already in process of opening cannabis access or debating changes. The major changes of 2025 will most likely be: Germany hits 1 billion euros in sales; U.S. will reschedule and pass SAFE banking; Spain ratifies a framework of medical cannabis after three years of debate; France will open up from an experimental cannabis program to a full nationalized program; Czechia, Ireland and Denmark will all open up prescriptions to general practitioners for medical cannabis and increase indications of use to ailments like pain; Japan will legalize CBD; Thailand will hard code cannabis access into their laws; Philippines will open cannabis access; and there will be many more countries announcing debate or changes to cannabis medical access.
Steve Reilly
Partner and head of government relations
We’re eager and optimistic about what 2025 holds for the cannabis industry. Our mission has always been to deliver premium, safe and regulated products to our consumers and patients in each market we operate in, and that will continue to be at the forefront of the upcoming year as the industry evolves and the opportunity to continue innovating and having the opportunity to refine our processes, ensuring our products continue to reach the highest standards of consistency, efficacy and purity.
In addition, we’re looking forward to the expanding recognition of cannabis as a wellness product — furthering a primal mission of ours to make consumers and patients’ daily lives better. We aim to deepen our relationships within the communities we serve by continuing to focus on education and destigmatization, yielding a more inclusive future for cannabis.
Vince C. Ning
CEO and co-founder
We’ve known that the cannabis industry is highly dynamic and ever-evolving since its humble beginnings. However, 2024 really solidified the idea that success cannot be about waiting for the market to reach a perfect state, but rather, it must be about building resilient and flexible operations. Going into 2025 — especially under a new presidential administration — business owners, operators and regulators need to stay nimble, anticipate regulatory shifts and be able to adapt swiftly to market fluctuations.
Crystal Millican
Senior vice president of retail and marketing
One of my biggest takeaways from 2024 is that focus is key. The industry continues to face a lot of uncertainty and volatility, so whether it be focusing on product lines in specific markets or new consumer needs, it’s about continuing to cornerstone efforts toward what has created success for you and your company in the past.
Nick Avé
General Manager
The industry has come a long way since the early days when it was mainly driven by hobbyists and passionate advocates. Today, the market is more structured, with companies bringing more standardized practices and expertise to operations, branding and customer service. In 2025, we anticipate seeing increased professionalization in our sector, and we couldn’t be more ready for the improved experience it will bring to the end consumer.
Lauren Carpenter
Founder and CEO
There is lots to learn from 2024 that I imagine will shape 2025 and beyond. Fortunately, in California we are seeing meaningful movement in the continued effort to destigmatize cannabis and an increased understanding of, and appreciation for, the ways that cannabis can exist in new spaces. Look no further than the integration of cannabis sales and consumption at this year’s California State Fair as an example — that experience confirmed that we can responsibly integrate cannabis into mainstream settings where a broader community can embrace it. Heading into 2025, Embarc will continue to work to integrate cannabis beyond niche spaces and into everyday culture. This shift highlights the importance of community engagement, transparency and responsible consumption experiences in building lasting relationships with the public.
Sasha Nutgent
Retail director
In 2024, we’ve learned how quickly the New York cannabis market can grow and be profitable with now over 200 legal dispensaries open, but we’ve also learned the challenges dispensary owners have faced especially as it relates to taxes and 280E. While the cannabis industry is similar to traditional retail, the profit generated can do more for business owners and marginalized communities once the tax laws are adjusted. In 2025, for New York I expect and hope to see a shift in the regulations surrounding cannabis marketing, robust loyalty programs for customers of rec-use dispensaries and more funding for small business owners seeking entry into the industry.
Michael Teller
Chief operating officer
At the federal level, even though SAFE Banking reform remains unlikely in the near term, a potential interest rate cut could offer the industry significant financial relief. Should rates decrease, two key benefits could emerge, including cheaper debt and improved investor lending. Current debt rates are in the mid-to-low teens, but with a potential rate cut, borrowing costs could fall to the mid-to-high single digits by the end of 2025. This would enable companies to access more affordable capital, refinance older, costly debt and secure growth capital. As a result, lower rates would allow investors to obtain credit at reduced costs. While lending rates would decrease, they could still achieve attractive returns due to a broader lending pipeline. This environment would likely boost public market sentiment, thereby attracting new capital inflows into the sector.
Corporate development
I expect U.S. cannabis retail to reach $35 billion in sales in ’25 (up 7% / $2.3 billion from ’24). This will be largely driven by sales growth in New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Michigan. Ohio and New Jersey will each become billion-dollar markets (New York was the only state to achieve this milestone in ‘24; Missouri and Maryland achieved this milestone in ‘23). Finally, cannabis flower pricing in the most challenged legacy markets (California, Colorado, Oregon) will increase year-over-year in ‘25 as cultivation capacity reductions impact product supply.