Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota all reject adult-use measures; Nebraska, the lone victor, passes two medical marijuana initiatives
The era of constant progress in cannabis appears to be over.
Voters in three states — Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota — rejected ballot measures to legalize recreational cannabis, marking the first presidential election since Barack Obama’s first term (2008) that the United States did not have at least one state vote in favor of an adult-use initiative.
The bright spot of a rather dark election comes from Nebraska, which approved a medical marijuana legalization measure after activists spent years attempting to put the issue in front of voters — though we may still be waiting for the courts to decide whether the election result will be allowed to stand (a ruling was expected any day, and may well be issued before this issue starts hitting mailboxes).
While the outcome was certainly less than positive for the legalization movement, there were tiny signs of hope and progress: Nebraska voters overwhelmingly approved the medical marijuana initiative, with nearly 71% ticking the “yes” box; a majority of Florida voters approved of the legalization initiative, though the Sunshine State required at least 60% to pass; and North Dakota, despite rejecting legalization for the third time, closed the gap from 59% opposed in 2018 to just 54% opposed in 2024. South Dakota, frankly, remains somewhat of an enigma, rejecting adult-use initiatives in 2022 and 2024, following an adult-use bill that passed in 2020, only to be shot down by the state Supreme Court.
Florida
– The Result: Although a majority of Florida voters approved of the legalization measure (55.9%), constitutional amendments in the Sunshine State require at least 60% to pass. Thus, Amendment 3 failed, wiping out tens of millions of dollars in stock value among publicly traded cannabis companies in the process.
Florida went through a similar process with medical marijuana: the state’s original initiative “failed” with 57% of the vote in 2014, before succeeding two years later with 71% in favor.
Where will recreational cannabis go from here? It seems only a matter of time before the issue is put in front of voters once again. But 60% approval is a high bar for adult-use cannabis — a level of support that far more progressive states have failed to meet, including California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oregon and Washington.
– Why It Matters: The Florida initiative was clearly the most impactful of this election cycle. Not only would it have made Florida the second-largest adult-use state by population, but it would have put the Sunshine State on a path to surpass California, Michigan and New York in total cannabis sales. And just like with the presidential election, analysts will be looking for causes and correlations for years to come.
There are numerous storylines to consider following Amendment 3’s failure: Governor Ron DeSantis opposed the measure and spent taxpayer dollars on anti-cannabis messaging (possibly illegal, but definitely misleading). Donald Trump made a statement supporting the measure during his presidential campaign and then never spoke about it again. And the lack of home grow drew the ire of advocates across the country (though many say Florida’s strict single-issue ballot rules prohibited an initiative including adult-use sales and home grow).
However, the biggest question is whether voters were turned off by a measure that would have largely maintained the status quo of a highly concentrated cannabis industry. In a state with nearly 23 million people, only 20 companies hold vertically integrated licenses to grow, process and sell medical marijuana. Trulieve, the Florida-based multi-state operator that sells roughly 40% of the smokable cannabis in the Sunshine State, spent about $144 million promoting Amendment 3, while other companies donated about $8 million to the Smart & Safe Florida campaign.
– The Business Angle: Florida continues to be a robust and sought-after medical market, but the failure of Amendment 3 is a major hit to companies looking to maximize the profit potential of cannabis. Even as a medical-only market, state-licensed dispensaries generate more than $2 billion in annual sales.
The state has issued 25 vertically integrated licenses, with only 20 companies currently operating retail storefronts. Those companies are a who’s who of Big Weed, including Trulieve, GTI, Cresco Labs, AYR, Verano and Curaleaf. Though the company has had mixed success in other markets, Trulieve dominates its home state with 156 of the 692 dispensaries open, selling roughly 3,500 pounds of smokable cannabis and 181 million milligrams of THC (edibles and concentrates) weekly.
Although Florida is expected to issue additional licenses, the state has been particularly slow to keep its promises.
– The Social Angle: Florida’s cannabis oligopoly is not ideal for patients, though it generally leads to more stability than free-for-all states such as Oklahoma. Perhaps a larger consequence of Florida’s ongoing prohibition is that people will continue to be arrested, charged and imprisoned for cannabis possession — and apparently, in a hallmark of poor government transparency, that exact number is very difficult to ascertain. Reported numbers range from 2,000 to 42,000 marijuana-related arrests annually in recent years, according to a Florida Politics interview with NORML’s Paul Armentano. Those widely disparate numbers make it seem like Florida is trying to hide something.
– Quotable: “Florida’s rejection of Amendment 3 echoes a similar message sent by Ohio voters in 2015, when they struck down a measure that would have granted exclusive growing rights to just 10 producers,” attorney Shaleen Title told MJBizDaily. “In both cases, voters rejected proposals that would have created highly concentrated markets favoring a small number of entities funding the effort. Amendment 3’s near-total funding by Trulieve raised legitimate concerns about market fairness and consumer choice.”
North Dakota
– The Result: For the third time in six years, North Dakota voters made their feelings known: no recreational cannabis in the Peace Garden State. Although the vote has gotten closer with each election cycle, Measure 5 failed with 52.5% of voters opposing the legalization initiative. (Previous attempts saw 59% rejecting the 2018 initiative and 55% rejecting the 2022 initiative.)
– Why It Matters: This feels like the end of the road for adult-use cannabis in North Dakota, at least for the near future. Despite the margin inching closer, it’s clear where residents stand on the issue. North Dakota becomes the only state in the country to reject a legalization initiative three times. It’s not to say it will never happen but barring a major shift in local politics or outside influence (read: money), advocates could be waiting a while.
– The Business Angle: Even without allowing adult-use sales, North Dakota’s medical cannabis businesses are likely in better shape than many other states because of its limited license structure. North Dakota only has two licensed producer/processors and eight licensed dispensaries, which accounted for $22.4 million in retail sales during fiscal year 2024 — a modest, 3.7% increase from the $21.6 million the year before. The state has also seen its patient count rise slightly since 2023, up 3.5% to 9,934 in FY2024.
– The Social Angle: As with the other two states that rejected legalization measures in the 2024 election, one of the biggest concerns is the ongoing criminalization of cannabis. According to a 2021 report, North Dakota had the nation’s second highest rate of marijuana-related arrests at 227 per 100,000 people (behind only Idaho). A 2018 report from the ACLU listed North Dakota as the seventh worst state by racial disparity in marijuana arrests, with Black people arrested at 5.5 times the rate of white people for cannabis crimes. It’s no wonder the North Dakota Peace Officers, Chiefs of Police Association of North Dakota and North Dakota Sheriffs and Deputies Associations all opposed legalization.
– Quotable: “Once again, the voters of North Dakota have wisely rejected an attempt to legalize recreational marijuana,” Republican activist Pat Finken told the North Dakota Monitor. “They understand that today’s marijuana is not safe and legalization will only add to the addiction and mental health crisis already punishing North Dakota families.”
Nebraska
– The Result: Nebraska was the lone positive for the 2024 election, approving two separate ballot measures to legalize medical marijuana and establish a regulatory framework for the industry. Initiative 437, which legalized possession and use of cannabis for medical purposes, passed with 70.9% of the vote. Initiative 438, the commercial companion bill, was only slightly less popular, passing with 67.1% of the vote. The overwhelming affirmation in support of medical cannabis is the crowning achievement of activists who worked for years targeting reform, first through legislative channels, then with multiple attempts at ballot initiatives (the first was shot down in 2019 by the courts; the second, in 2022, failed to gather enough signatures).
– Why It Matters: Nebraska reminds us there’s still growth to be recognized in the United States — and not all of it is because of something as shallow as dollars and cents. While adult-use cannabis remains somewhat controversial and faces a tougher path to legalization, medical marijuana enjoys wide support across the country, in progressive bastions as well as conservative strongholds. The latest numbers from Pew Research show 88% of Americans believe cannabis should be legal for medicinal use. It begs the question why states like Idaho, Kansas and Wyoming are holdouts.
– The Business Angle: Without more specifics on Nebraska’s regulatory framework, it’s tough to predict what kind of a business impact medical marijuana will have. The law firm Vicente LLP projected 56,000 registered patients and $90 million in annual sales by 2028.
– The Social Angle: The victory in Nebraska really is for the patients and a testament to the hard work of advocates who have spent years and years working with lawmakers, educating the public, gathering signatures and getting out the vote — not to mention staying on track despite a sometimes adversarial court system. This wasn’t an election result based on a $100 million promotional campaign motivated by potential profits, but a grassroots effort to improve the lives of thousands of people.
– Quotable: “We have been fighting for the patients in this state, and tonight’s win is not because of a few people or one campaign,” Crista Eggers, the campaign manager for the ballot measures, told the Nebraska Examiner on election night (Eggers’ son has epilepsy, and she has been advocating for medical marijuana in Nebraska for a decade). “Tonight’s win is for the Nebraska patients.”
South Dakota
– The Result: South Dakota voters rejected Measure 29, an initiative that would have legalized possession and recreational use of cannabis, but did not address commercial sales. It was the second election in a row that South Dakota rejected a similar measure and, unlike their neighbors to the north, by a widening margin. The 2022 initiative failed with 52.9% of voters rejecting it; this year’s initiative saw 55.5% in opposition. More than 50,000 more people voted “no” this time around than two years ago. The odd thing is that South Dakota voters approved an adult-use bill with commercial sales in 2020 — 54.2% voted yes — only to have the state Supreme Court override the will of the people and kill the bill because of the commercial sales aspect.
– Why It Matters: In slightly different fashion than North Dakota, this is the third election cycle in a row that South Dakota has unsuccessfully tried to pass an adult-use bill. Activists seem to be walking a tight-rope between what fickle voters want and what the court may accept. “We’ve reached the point where there’s basically very little philanthropic funding for cannabis reform initiatives,” Matthew Schweich, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project and leader of the unsuccessful South Dakota campaign, told media outlets following the election.
“The real question is where should we even attempt this anymore, because we’re not a well-funded political movement.”
– The Business Angle: It’s hard to know exactly what the fallout will be from the adult-use bill’s failure. Measure 29, although it would have legalized possession and recreational use of cannabis, did not address commercial sales, so it’s tough to say if or when medical dispensaries would be able to open their doors to the public. That being said, the road to survival, let alone profitability, already looked arduous for South Dakota’s existing businesses. South Dakota could have one of the most saturated markets in the country, with 77 dispensaries, 37 cultivators and 19 manufacturers competing for business from just over 12,000 registered patients. By comparison, North Dakota has one dispensary for every 1,250 registered patients; South Dakota has one for every 150.
Following the election, Unity Rd., South Dakota’s first licensed dispensary not on tribal land, announced it would be closing before the end of the year.
“I am a business person and this is an absolute business decision,” co-owner BJ Olson told Dakota News Now. “I don’t see the positive outcome for us continuing down the road of medical marijuana.”
– The Social Angle: For a variety of reasons, marijuana-related arrests and charges can be notoriously difficult to track from one year to the next, especially without lengthy caveats explaining disparities. That said, in our somewhat enlightened society, we recognize being at or near the top of any ranking for states is not a good thing. That’s commonly where South Dakota can be found when it comes to cannabis crimes. Reports from the ACLU in 2018 listed South Dakota as the worst state in the country for cannabis-related arrests and 10th worst in racial disparity of cannabis-related arrests. This is the crux of the War on Drugs and, more so than the business opportunities that often fuel political campaigns, why legalization is so important.
– Quotable: “South Dakota will continue to miss out on the economic and public safety benefits that come with a regulated adult-use cannabis market,” Greenlight CEO John Mueller told MJBizDaily. “The illicit market will persist, depriving the state of tax revenue and leaving consumers without tested, regulated products.”