Loaded Question: How healthy is the industry?

Kenny Morrison | Founder | CQ

Dispensaries sell cannabis to a niche consumer obsessed with potency above all other factors. For lack of a better analogy, these consumers in many ways are not civilians.

Mainstream, non-dispensary retailers sell cannabis to consumers of all stripes and tolerances for a broader variety of use cases.

Elana Frankel | Author | Women & Weed

Best bet for any state: a trade association that truly supports the community — a place where operators work together and share best (and worst) practices. The future depends on price, potency, new products and interstate commerce. If it won’t be removed from the Controlled Substances Act, Congress should proactively establish a regulatory framework for interstate cannabis products.

Terrence White | CEO | Monko

In D.C., the cannabis industry is shrinking due to a lack of leadership and knowledge. Despite more than 6 million visitors monthly, our medical cannabis market only generated $35 million in 2024, while it could easily reach $300 to 400 million annually. Just 30 minutes away in Maryland, the industry is thriving, with strong leadership, adult-use cannabis and DEI funding driving growth. Maryland is making the most of cannabis opportunities and outperforming many other states.

Sara Brittany Somerset | Drug Policy Correspondent and Analyst | United Nations

The cannabis market in the United States, in general, is a trainwreck. As a native New Yorker, I put faith in Assemblymember Crystal Peoples-Stokes to ensure that my home state wouldn’t initially legalize cannabis without including stipulations for equity empowerment to try to retroactively repair the significant damage done to minority communities during the War on Drugs. However, in the meantime, unregulated cannabis shops with prominently displayed product packaging designed to look like candy popped up everywhere unrestricted, while regulated shops with advertising and display restrictions jumped through hurdles to get licensed. These very limited legal dispensaries were virtually unrecognizable for years. You could walk right past them without noticing them.

My block alone has six unregulated shops. Practically every bodega sells bootleg vape carts manufactured in China and unregulated weed that is trafficked in from California and elsewhere. Many of these shops do not ask for ID to ascertain if the buyer is 21 or over. This would hardly ever occur in a liquor store.

Drew Hull | Head of Government Affairs | True Terpenes

The cannabis market is a complex patchwork of varying state regulations, leading to drastically different market dynamics. Focusing on Oklahoma, its unique approach to licensing has created an interesting case study. The sheer volume of cultivation licenses issued in Oklahoma dwarfs those of most other states combined. This over-licensing has resulted in a significant oversupply of flower, driving wholesale prices down considerably.

While some might see this as a problem, it presents some interesting opportunities. The low cost of raw material allows for greater exploration and development of specialized cannabis products, such as rosin. With abundant supply, producers can focus on quality and unique offerings, potentially leading to a richer consumer experience. Consumers in these markets benefit from a wider selection and potentially higher quality products due to increased competition.

From a long-term perspective, Oklahoma’s strategy, along with similar approaches in states like Michigan and Oregon, serves as a valuable experiment. While it may lead to short-term market fluctuations, it also forces the industry to adapt and innovate. This “oversupply” model could ultimately contribute to a more mature and sophisticated cannabis market in the long run, pushing producers to differentiate themselves through quality, unique product development and branding, rather than simply relying on high prices driven by limited supply. It also highlights the need for other states to carefully consider their licensing strategies to avoid similar imbalances or learn from Oklahoma’s experience. Whether this strategy is sustainable in the long term remains to be seen, but it undoubtedly offers valuable lessons for the evolving cannabis industry nationwide.

David Eagleson | Director of Product Management | Metrc

The cannabis market is increasingly rewarding brands that prioritize transparency, much like consumers in more mature industries such as food, beauty and wellness. With a growing number of choices, informed customers gravitate toward brands that offer clear insight into their products. Longtime cannabis users value the nuanced details that differentiate strains and formulations, while the canna-curious seek transparency for safety and education aspects. Consumers appreciate brands that share key information — ranging from cultivation methods and sourcing to terpene profiles and genetic lineage — mirroring the way transparency has become a standard expectation in other more tenured markets.

Andrew Ward | Owner | Award Creative Content 

I’m disillusioned yet cautiously optimistic about New York. After years of promising to learn from other states’ mistakes, New York repeated nearly all of them, hurting groups like cultivators and equity applicants in the process. Licensing has expanded, and total sales have topped $1 billion, but high costs and slowly improving flower quality still hold things back.

Meg Sanders | CEO | Canna Provisions

My thoughts on the cannabis market, in general, is this is a potentially cautionary tale. When you enter into a new state, especially a state that doesn’t necessarily have even a neighbor with safe access, of course you’re going to see wild and dramatic growth. And we definitely experienced that here in Massachusetts. As the market matures, you just turn into traditional retail, and very few people are skilled enough to manage that. There’s still a mentality, even in mature states, that if you build it, they will come, and that’s just not true. We’re actually helping companies through our consulting arm to reconsider how they transition from “if we build it, they will come” to a traditional retail setting, so that they can be realistic about what the revenue and the profitability is going to be.

Cory R. Williams | General Manager | Little Beach Harvest

The rapid expansion of the cannabis industry in some states, such as New York and Maryland, is exciting, but it also brings its own set of challenges. Unfortunately, the drive for profit is overshadowing the integrity of the products. Too many people are entering the market purely for financial gain rather than for the passion of creating something meaningful or beneficial for consumers. The industry’s focus has shifted away from craft and quality, and I fear that it may never return to its roots. The influx of new players and the pursuit of profit over purpose is diluting the essence of the cannabis industry.

Davis Tiburzi | CEO | CannaZip

At both the state and federal level, common-sense thought would be to look at what policies have been effective and what policies have caused more harm than good, then emulate the good and trim out the bad. We’re seeing a lot of states trying to invent their own version of cannabis law without taking this into consideration, which is having a significant and sometimes deleterious effect on market dynamics, in the form of supply/demand market stability, price compression, consolidation and over-saturation. Why reinvent the wheel when we can learn from the mistakes and/or successes of other markets and implement effective laws and regulations as new state or federal policy begins to roll out?

Darren Gleeman | Managing Partner | MBO Ventures

The cannabis market is evolving, and over time, illegal operations will play a much smaller role. But the real driver in the industry isn’t legalization, it’s competition and regulation.

Some states, like New York and Maryland, are still expanding. Others like Michigan and Oregon are holding steady. While some like California and Arizona are shrinking rapidly. The difference is market saturation and government intervention.

Take California. It’s a prime example of what happens when an oversupply of businesses drives prices down to unsustainable levels. If cannabis were truly unregulated, the best companies would rise to the top, just like any other industry. But that’s not reality. Government regulations decide who wins and loses whether through tax policy, licensing caps or compliance costs.

The companies that thrive will be the ones that can navigate this regulatory minefield while maintaining strong margins. Everyone else gets squeezed out.

Brendan McKee | Chief operating officer | Silver Therapeutics

I am always bullish on the cannabis market as a whole. The cannabis plant lends itself to all ages and demographics and has become a popular alternative to alcohol. Mature markets become more challenging over time but if you have a strong brand with high performing retail assets, you should be able to win the long game. Above all, you need a great team which we have been fortunate enough to build and maintain for the last seven-plus years.

Kevin Hart | CEO | Green Check

Consumer adoption continues to grow nationally, with a noticeable surge in newly legal recreational states and their neighboring states where cannabis sales aren’t yet available. As with any new market, the initial sales surge driven by first-time or curious consumers will eventually taper off. In states like Arizona, where sales are declining, the key metric to watch isn’t revenue but total units (SKUs) sold and the corresponding price points.

Cannabis is now a mainstream CPG product and should be evaluated as such. Units sold, not just dollars collected, should be the primary measure of success. Pricing and margins are still far from reaching equilibrium, even at the state level.

Will Read | CEO | CannaPlanners

Every state is its own little universe. Some are booming, some are steady, and others are contracting fast. What’s fascinating is how each market has its own identity. Take New York, for example: there’s a huge focus on building brands, sometimes even at the expense of product quality. Flip that to places like Massachusetts, California or Colorado, where the priority has historically been on the product itself, and the brand comes second.

Massachusetts is particularly interesting right now. The market’s consolidating, which means companies can double down on both quality and meaningful brand connections with their customers. Fewer players, stronger relationships, that’s the trend I’m seeing.

Kyle Loucks | CEO | RollPros

Overall, the cannabis market is maturing and remains strong. The Oregon market, in particular, stands out for offering the most diverse products at fair prices. As the market has matured, consumers have become more educated, meaning flashy packaging and gimmicky, bedazzled infused joints are largely a thing of the past. In this next phase, there’s a premium on consistency and quality rather than just chasing high THC content. I can now choose between expertly grown, craft outdoor packs of joints or top-shelf indoor flower at a great price that still packs a serious punch.

Justin Tacy |Head of Marketing | PAX

We’re watching the classic lifecycle of an emerging industry, and we’re still in the infancy of that journey. States like New York, Maryland, Ohio and others are experiencing explosive growth and we’re seeing a lot of innovation and first-mover advantage, despite highly fragmented marketplaces. In states that are seeing declines, it’s important to think of it as a shakeout, where brands are facing normal price compression and consolidation. Those that can ride it out and figure out how to run an economically sustainable business will be positioned to win — and return to growth — as these markets stabilize.

Damon Pennington | Co-owner | Greenhouse Lifestyles

The cannabis industry is at a turning point. Markets like New York and Maryland are still expanding, but missteps in licensing and enforcement have slowed progress. Meanwhile, California’s decline highlights the dangers of high taxes and a thriving illicit market. The industry needs better regulatory frameworks that promote small businesses, curb illegal sales and prevent market oversaturation — otherwise, we’ll keep seeing these boom-and-bust cycles.

Kyle Neathery | CEO | Samson Extracts

Every market starts with higher product pricing, expecting a predictable decrease from new competition, educated consumers and promotional efforts by dispensaries and processors. States with open licensing models will see a rapid race to the bottom; businesses will shutter quickly in this free market, capitalistic model where survival of the fittest will be realized. Consumers thrive in states with these models.

States operating limited licensing methodologies will see prices and revenue remain higher, with supply-and-demand economics taking over due to difficulties with expanding cultivation space and scaling manufacturing. These states experience less pricing pressure at the dispensary level, keeping prices higher for consumers and free from critical promotional efforts to create cash flow. Limited competition models are great for the business but not so advantageous for the consumer. 

Rocco Del Priore | Co-founder | Sweed

The U.S. cannabis industry presents a diverse landscape, with states experiencing varying growth trajectories. New markets like New York and Maryland have seen rapid expansion in their cannabis markets. New York, for instance, is projected to see over $2.8 billion in medical and recreational cannabis sales in 2025.
Conversely, more mature states such as California and Arizona are experiencing market contractions. California’s legal cannabis market has contracted more than 20% in the last two years, with businesses struggling due to increased licensing fees and tax hikes.
Factors influencing these trends include regulatory frameworks, taxation policies, market saturation and competition from illicit markets. States with supportive regulations and effective enforcement against illegal sales tend to see more robust market growth. Additionally, more mature markets, such as California and Oregon, are experiencing slower growth or contraction due to oversaturation and pricing pressures, while newer markets, like New York and Maryland, continue to expand as they establish infrastructure and attract consumers. 

Will Smith | President | Bud Bar Displays

I think the cannabis market will continue to thrive and flourish in the long term. New cannabis markets are sure to enter the fold in the coming years as more states introduce medical and recreational programs. I also believe that once interstate trade is possible markets that are stagnant or shrinking will see a resurgence as it will open an expanded customer base. 

Darwin Millard | Technical director | Cannabis Safety & Quality

The state of the U.S. cannabis market in general is in trouble. Cannabinoids and cannabinoid products which can be regulatorily classified as hemp have created a disparity between licensed operators, one that has driven cannabinoid product producers on both sides of the “cannabis” coin to rethink their business prospects. This confusion has also dragged non-cannabinoid-containing products like hempseeds and hemp fiber and hurd products under fire as well. There is confusion around how to deal with the residual levels of cannabinoids in the plant materials at the farm gate due to the confliction between cannabinoid-containing and non-cannabinoid-containing products. To fix this, we need to get out of our own way. There are too many voices “representing” the cannabis industries, both marijuana and hemp. Without a single cohesive voice, our messages are being drowned out. We need a continental cannabis congress to rectify our differences once and for all so that we can rally unified against those who wish to see us back in the shadows.